Announcements
- Colloquium on Digital Transformation Science
January 28, 3 pm CT
Modeling and Managing the Spread of COVID-19
Subhonmesh Bose, Assistant Professor of Electrical and Computer Engineering, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign
Testing and lock-down provide two important control levers to combat the spread of an infectious disease. Testing is a targeted instrument that permits the isolation of infectious individuals. Lock-down, on the other hand, is blunt and restricts the mobility of all people. In the first part of the talk, I will present a compartmental epidemic model that accounts for asymptomatic disease transmission, the impact of lock-down and different kinds of testing, motivated by the nature of the ongoing COVID-19 outbreak. In the large population regime, static mobility levels and testing requirements are characteristics that can mitigate the disease spread asymptotically. Then I present interesting properties of an optimal dynamic lock-down and testing strategy that minimizes a detailed cost of the epidemic. In the second part of the talk, I adapt the model for small populations, such as that of an educational institution, and use data from the UIUC SHIELD program’s rapid saliva-based testing strategy to estimate model parameters. Reopening strategies for educational institutions are evaluated via agent-based simulations using said parameter estimates. This talk is based on joint work with U. Mukherjee, S. Seshadri, S. Souyris, A. Ivanov, Y. Xu, and R. Watkins.
Subhonmesh Bose is an Assistant Professor in the Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering at the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign. His research is in the area of power and energy systems and is geared towards enabling the integration of renewable and distributed energy resources in the modern power grid. He is interested in developing rigorous analytical frameworks, fast algorithmic architectures, and efficient market designs to help enable that integration.
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